The UAE has entered an unusually intense, early heatwave, with temperatures already climbing past 44°C in recent days – a sweltering sign of what experts warn will be a hotter, longer summer.
Dr Ahmed Habib at the National Centre of Meteorology told The National that the country is currently gripped by a thermal low pressure system, causing highs to reach between 46ºC and 47ºC across much of the country − and possibly even nudging 48ºC. The intense heat is expected to persist throughout the week.
On Monday, the NCM issued a public health warning about the rise in temperatures.
“The air mass is moving from the desert into the UAE, causing temperatures to rise significantly.” said Dr Habib. “We have been affected by this pressure system since last week, and will continue to be affected by it over the next five days.”
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Summer arriving earlier, lasting longer
UAE summers are arriving earlier and lasting longer, says Dr Diana Francis, climate scientist and head of the ENGEOS Lab at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi.
“In our paper published in 2024 in Nature Scientific Reports, we looked into the shift in seasons and the changes to their length and found that summer is getting longer, with an early start and late end,” she said.
Dr Francis told The National that summer is now lasting on average 10 days longer – and this trend is projected to continue. “In the future, projections show an increase of the summer season towards six months, with fall and spring seasons shrinking in length.”
Her findings are echoed by Antonios Vouloudis, senior director of sustainability and stewardship at NYU Abu Dhabi. “Yes, the UAE is experiencing higher temperatures earlier in the year,” he said.
“Studies indicate that the hottest months over the past 50 years are occurring closer to the present day, suggesting a shift in seasonal temperature patterns.”
During the core summer months of June to September, average temperatures range from 32ºC to 37.2°C, with peaks reaching up to 50°C, especially in southern regions.
Linking local extremes to global trends
Climate scientists are clear that the UAE’s heating trend is part of a wider regional and global pattern − as 2024 was reported as the hottest year on record globally.
“In the past four decades, the region has warmed two times faster than the global average,” Dr Francis said. “Our projections show a warming of 5°C per decade until the end of the century.”
The broader Middle East and North Africa region, Mr Vouloudis says, has been warming at 0.46°C per decade since 1980.
“This trend aligns with regional patterns,” he said. “These changes are attributed to global climate change, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves across the region.”
Compounding the situation, Dr Francis noted that the typical cooling effect from the El Nino phenomenon is absent this year, intensifying local conditions.
Pressure on health, energy, and water systems
As temperatures climb toward the high-40s this year, experts warn that adapting to the realities of a warming climate is no longer optional. Residents are urged to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and adhere to public health advice.
“Extreme heat combined with humidity creates for human bodies conditions very difficult to survive in.” said Dr Francis.
Dr Aseel Takshe, chairwoman and associate professor with the department of public health at Canadian University Dubai, told The National that hospitals and emergency services are preparing for an upsurge in heat-related illnesses. “There is a strong emphasis on public education,” said Dr Takshe.
“Campaigns focus on recognising symptoms of heatstroke and dehydration, encouraging hydration and the use of appropriate clothing, posting reminders and informational materials at workplaces and public areas, and avoiding outdoor activity during peak heat hours.”
