In November, Norwegians bought almost 95% of fully electric and hybrid cars. In Norway last month, 95% of car sales fell on electric, 5% – cars with internal combustion engines, Еlectrek reports.
In November, in Norway, 73.8% of car sales fell on fully electric cars, hybrids – 21.1%. The leaders in the ranking are Tesla cars, including Model Y and Model 3. Also among the popular cars are Volkswagen ID.4, Audi Q4 e-tron and Nissan Leaf. At the same time, sales of electric vehicles are expected to increase in December due to increased deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y.
Opponents of electric cars, on the other hand, say Norway cannot be an example to other countries. After all, this is only a small market, which has many incentives to buy such cars. Therefore, the Norwegian market is allegedly not representative.
Norway seeks to phase out polluting cars by 2025. Norway imposes a significant tax on vehicles with internal combustion engines, and electric cars are exempt from it. In August, the share of cars with fully electric power plants in Norway reached 71.9%, hybrids with charging from the network – 15.8%. Thus, of the 16,427 cars sold per month, 87.7% were electrified models.
However, according to experts, what is happening in Norway is expected in most car markets around the world: “Automakers who believe that this will happen no earlier than 2030 or even 2035 will have to make adjustments or go bankrupt in record time.”
Earlier media reported that in Norway in April next year may sell the last cars with internal combustion engines.
In Norway, next year may sell the last ICE car
In Norway, in April next year may sell the last cars with internal combustion engines, Electrek states. The country plans to stop selling cars with internal combustion engines by 2025 – this is one of the earliest periods of abandonment of such cars.
It is expected that in seven months 100% of car sales will fall on electric cars.
According to the Road Council, models without any type of electrification accounted for less than 10% of sales compared to about 21% last year. Hybrid models also have less than 10%.
Norway imposes a significant tax on vehicles with internal combustion engines, and electric cars are exempt from it. In August, the share of cars with fully electric power plants in Norway reached 71.9%, hybrids with charging from the network – 15.8%. Thus, of the 16,427 cars sold per month, 87.7% were electrified models.
The future of cars: will cities save electric cars and hybrid cars?
Electric cars are no longer a fantastic future. In Norway, they already account for a third of the automotive market. And demand is only growing: according to J. P. Morgan, by 2030 only 41% of the world market will remain for cars with internal combustion engines (ICE). At the same time, electric cars also did not get a prominent place: another 41% of the market is forecast for hybrid cars.
Hybrids are cars with two power plants, usually an internal combustion engine in combination with an electric motor. The battery is charged during braking or directly from the internal combustion engine. Such cars save fuel and reduce emissions. But do not avoid them: to drive such a car still constantly needs fuel.
The most electrified are plug-in hybrids, whose batteries can be charged separately. They are able to travel up to 50 kilometers only on electric traction, which makes them the most environmentally friendly option.
Europe without diesel and petrol
It is expected that the fastest electrified cars will gain popularity in Europe. Last but not least, due to the plans declared by many governments to ban the sale of diesel and gasoline cars in the coming decades. In particular, by 2025 Norway plans to stop selling cars with internal combustion engines completely, and by 2030 it will be joined by Sweden and Denmark (there will also be a ban on hybrids from 2035).
So far, Israel is also going to stop importing cars with internal combustion engines. To stimulate the transition to electric cars, they plan to abolish taxes and invest in the creation of infrastructure, in particular, in the construction of 2,000 charging stations. At the same time, the existing buses and trucks in the country will be converted en masse to liquefied natural gas of their own production.
In Scotland, such a ban will take effect from 2032, and in the rest of the UK – from 2040. Here it will apply not only to cars with internal combustion engines, but also hybrids that can not travel 50 miles on electricity alone. By 2040, they plan to stop selling gasoline and diesel cars in France.
While countries are preparing to stop selling new cars with internal combustion engines, some cities are already banning them from entering the center. For example, in Madrid, the area of reduced emissions began operating in late 2018. Only zero-emission cars and vehicles of the district’s residents can now move and park without restrictions. For cars that do not meet the EURO 4 standard, entry to this part of the city is prohibited, and newer diesel and gasoline cars can only be left in your own parking space.
In early 2020, a similar zone was created in Barcelona: gasoline cars purchased before 2000 and diesel cars until 2006 are now banned in the city. The new reduced-emission zone is 20 times larger than Madrid’s and includes four satellite cities. It will be monitored by 150 cameras: a fine of 100-500 euros will have to be paid for violating the rules of entry into the city.
In London, on the other hand, old cars were not banned from entering, but they will be charged extra from 2019. Along with the entrance fee to the city center, which has been operating in the city since 2003, a trip to parts of London on weekdays can cost owners of old cars up to 24 pounds a day. Already in 2021, the ultra-low emission zone is planned to expand several times.
In the coming years, similar restrictions may appear in many cities. From 2020, Amsterdam’s main road will be closed to petrol cars over the age of 15, and from 2022, exhaust-generating buses will also be closed to the city center. Diesel cars will be banned from entering Rome from 2024, and similar restrictions may apply in Paris, Athens and Mexico by 2025. Recently, there has been talk in Warsaw about a zone accessible only to zero-emission cars.
How manufacturers are configured
Car companies are forced to take into account future restrictions, and therefore many of them have already announced the development of their own electric cars and hybrids, at least for the European market. In particular, from 2019, Vovlo no longer develops cars only with internal combustion engines, and all available models of the company are already available in a hybrid version. According to the forecast, by 2025, half of Volvo’s model line should be electric cars.
The British company Aston Martin has also announced a complete transition to electric cars and hybrids in 2025. Jaguar Land Rover will also offer electrified versions of all its new cars from 2020. Companies such as Toyota, Porsche, Nissan, Mitsubishi, etc. began to abandon diesel models. And Mazda Motor Corp plans to electrify all its cars by 2030, but electric cars are projected to account for only 5% of the company’s sales.
The only opinion on what will prevail is hybrid cars or electric cars, among the manufacturers yet. For example, Honda plans to abandon the sale of internal combustion engines in the European market from 2022 and relies on hybrids. “The goal is not to electrify as such, but to increase fuel efficiency,” said Takahiro Hatigo, chairman of the company.
At the same time, Hatigo doubts the readiness of the infrastructure and the demand for fully electric cars. “Are there buyers who really want them? He says. – Different countries have different rules that we must comply with. Therefore, we continue to research and develop electric cars. But I don’t think they will become mainstream in the near future.” It is also worth noting that the accelerated electrification of Honda cars so far applies only to Europe: according to forecasts, in 2030 a third of the company’s sales in the world will still fall on cars with internal combustion engines alone.
Instead, Mary Barra, chairman of General Motors (a carmaker that makes Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, etc.), says the company plans to move to electric cars as soon as possible. At the same time, Barra considers attempts to fit two power plants in one car to be a loser. “Why spend so much capital and time developing in a segment that will remain ‘overboard’ when we know what the transport industry will end up with?” She said.
Mary Barra agrees that hybrids may be a necessary transition, but sees them as only a partial solution to the problem and a challenge for business. In 2019, due to low demand, the company stopped selling the Chevrolet Volt hybrid in the United States: buyers do not want to pay extra for the second engine. “The sooner we get to zero emissions, the better, and electric cars can help us do that. … If you are a customer-oriented company and believe in global warming, why not switch to them as soon as possible?” Says Barra.
At the same time, the environmental benefits of electric vehicles throughout the life cycle are still being debated. For example, in 2019, Mazda chose for its new electric car the MX-30 a small battery by today’s standards. On a single charge, it allows you to travel about 200 kilometers. The company noted that the size of the battery is not “small” but “responsible”: according to their calculations, cars with larger batteries (provided they are replaced after 160,000 kilometers) eventually cause more carbon dioxide emissions than diesel.
Although many previous studies suggest that electric cars are more environmentally friendly than internal combustion engines, they still cause some emissions during production, battery disposal and electricity use (which in many countries is still produced by coal-fired power plants). It is expected that with the improvement of the battery recycling system and the transition to clean energy sources, the negative impact of cars on the environment will decrease. However, there is another option – to reduce the amount of individual transport through car sharing, use of public transport, bicycles and more.
Not all problems are solved
One of the biggest advantages of electric cars in the city is the lack of operating emissions. That is, no Tesla or Nissan Leaf pollutes the air during the trip (except for microplastic from worn tires). This is especially true for cities: where low-emission zones are implemented, there is usually an excess of permissible levels of air pollution.
Hybrids, although less polluting than older diesel and petrol cars, are losing out to electric vehicles. Therefore, some of the future restrictions, particularly in the UK, will cover them. However, by then, their benefits may be significant – hybrids can significantly reduce pollution where the infrastructure is not yet ready for a full transition to electric cars.
Low-emission zones are showing efficiency: in London, for example, CO2 levels fell by 36%, and in Madrid – by 48%.
However, there are problems that cannot be solved by replacing the power plant. This applies, for example, to secure infrastructure. The city must guarantee it for all road users, and sometimes new technologies require even additional regulations: for example, in 2019, electric cars in the EU were obliged to “make noise” when driving at speeds up to 20 km / h for safety, especially people with visual impairments – now these cars are almost inaudible.
Another issue is the motorization of cities. Traffic jams and a parked center will not disappear from the transition to electric cars. Therefore, some cities are looking for a different approach, for example, free public transport is being introduced in Estonia, and in Oslo restrictions have been created not only for old cars, but for all cars. Many central streets have been closed to traffic, and 700 parking lots have been converted into bicycle lanes or squares.