The opening days of a UN climate change summit are when royals, presidents and prime ministers take the podium and proclaim the green ideals that set the tone for two weeks of talks.
But big names will be missing from the stage at the Cop29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, with even environmentally minded leaders in the West distracted by domestic troubles, as big green pledges hit political and economic headwinds.
The Baku talks are the bridge between the consensus reached on climate goals at Cop28 in the UAE last year – such as trebling clean energy by 2030 – and countries coming forward with concrete plans to fulfil them by the time of Cop30 in 2025.
By the time of next year’s summit in Brazil, however, Donald Trump will be back in the White House and the pro-net zero leaders of Germany and Canada may also have been turfed out in elections, amid fears rich countries are souring on the climate cause just when the world is looking to them for leadership.
“It is actually quite worrying to hear what’s going on politically around the world,” Meena Raman, a regular participant in Cop summits representing the Third World Network from Malaysia, told The National on day one in Baku, where the two-day leaders’ summit begins on Tuesday.
Amid pressures to calm populist anger at home and hand money to green causes abroad, governments could raise funds for the climate by taxing the wealthy, reducing military spending, or cutting subsidies for fossil fuels, Ms Raman said. “These are not impossible positions,” she said. “If there is a political will to do so, there are ways of doing so, regardless of what problems governments are having.”
About 100 heads of state and government are expected to take the podium in Baku after the UAE handed over the presidency to Azerbaijan on Monday. All eyes are on whether Cop29 produces a finance deal for rich countries to pour trillions into clean energy, cutting pollution and disaster preparation and recovery.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz scrapped his trip to Azerbaijan after his left-green-liberal coalition collapsed in a row over economic policy, with new elections expected early next year. Having championed renewable energy, heat pumps and the phase-out of coal power, Mr Scholz’s government faces a scathing verdict from voters who look set to hand power to the opposition Christian Democrats.
The centre-right party has pinned the blame for Germany’s economic troubles squarely on green policies, while resurgent nationalists in the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party openly question climate science. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is a second G7 leader staring at defeat in a 2025 election, with an increase in his signature carbon tax described as “wacko” by the opposition. He is also absent from Baku.
Neither Mr Trump nor departing US President Joe Biden will attend, and the second Trump administration is expected to once again withdraw from the Paris climate agreement after Mr Biden restored the US signature. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is busy with EU horse-trading as she assembles a team for her second term. Her climate envoy in Baku, Wopke Hoekstra, has had his brief revamped with more focus on economic growth after farmer protests helped water down the EU’s green agenda.
Asad Rehman, the head of anti-poverty group War on Want, said a lack of political will from governments in the West “is what is opening the door” for the rise of right-wing populists who challenge the consensus on tackling climate change. “This is a moment for solidarity between people of the Global North and the Global South, for a shared future,” he said.
One exception to the lack of enthusiasm in the West is Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is making his debut on the Cop stage and plans to invest in clean power. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is personally leading the UK’s negotiating team.
Mr Starmer is one of only two G7 leaders attending the talks, along with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. Also missing are French President Emmanuel Macron and Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is battling to stay in power. China is sending Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang to represent its President Xi Jinping.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not expected to attend, after Moscow’s veto of an EU venue was key to Azerbaijan winning the Cop29 hosting rights. Britain’s environmentalist King Charles III, who attended Cop28 in the UAE, is recovering from cancer treatment.
